Cryptocurrency prediction 2023: price forecast and market analysis
There is little left to reach the halfway point of the year and we continue to speculate about what the balance will be at the end of 2023 . The prediction on the cryptocurrency market , both the traditional ones (BTC, ETH,...), and the newer ones, has not remained stable in these months. The general trend of financial markets has forced forecasts to be changed and reformulated.
In this article we will see a price forecast that follows the market's path, taking into account those endogenous and exogenous factors that, with greater or lesser force, impact crypto launchpad development. And since price is not everything, we will also present some ideas on how to invest correctly in this sector along with a selection of those projects that are emerging as most profitable between now and the end of the year.
Cryptocurrency prediction 2023: three possible scenarios
The future behavior of the crypto market as a whole is not something that can be measured with millimeter accuracy, but rather depends on a series of quasi-infinite variables. However, it is possible to propose a probability scenario that helps set the course.
In principle, there are three main scenarios. The percentage probability of each one is given by the development of the market in recent months and also the sentiment collected by different reference analysis houses.
Cryptocurrency prediction on pessimistic scenario
The pessimistic scenario has only a 20% probability. This is a situation in which we would have a second round of the crypto winter that we are experiencing in 2022, with strong downward pressures that affect not only digital currencies, but the entire set of financial assets. Inflation would not stop, forcing central banks to maintain or even raise rates further. The economy would go into crisis and prices would remain high.
Thus, the global market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market would once again fall below the psychological barrier marked at 1 trillion dollars (925 billion euros). In addition, a new wave of bankruptcies of those exchanges that are in the worst financial situation would accompany the fall , thus producing new mergers and acquisitions.
This scenario would also have a complex legal panorama, since it presupposes that the authorities of different countries tighten the regulations in force in their territory and even take legal action against the most important players in the market.
Cryptocurrency prediction on estimated scenario
This prediction is the central one and has a 70% probability, since at the moment it is the one that best fits with what we have seen at the beginning of the year and what may presumably happen in the future. Slowly but steadily, the total capitalization of cryptocurrencies will continue to increase until reaching the orbit of 2 trillion dollars (1.82 trillion euros).
We would also be facing a good harmony of the financial markets, with the central banks definitively stopping their pace of rate increases, inflation falling and the economies bordering on recession, but without settling into it. Furthermore, a no small percentage of new launchpad development services would be well received by investors, something that is already happening with the appetite shown towards ICOs.
Cryptocurrency prediction on optimistic scenario
Since it would require a fresh round of stock market frenzy, the third scenario would be the most optimistic. In a way, it is not necessary for us to experience a battery of expansionary policies, but it would be enough for inflation to be reduced rapidly and with this one or two interest rate cuts could arrive.
Such a condition would give wings to the market capitalization of the crypto market, exceeding 2 trillion dollars and potentially reaching 3 trillion (2.77 trillion euros). This scenario would also have to go hand in hand with an especially visible laxity regarding international regulation. It would not be so much about laissez faire , but rather about a certain flexibility when legislating.
What influences the price of cryptocurrencies?
In order to make a consistent prediction about the price of cryptocurrencies, it is essential to have all the factors involved or, at least, the most important ones. They would be the following:
Factors that positively influence
First of all, there are the factors that can positively influence (or in fact actively do so) the general set of cryptocurrencies . We will not therefore go into specific situations and circumstances that affect certain projects.
The relationship, elaborated in a synthetic way, would be the following:
The adoption of cryptocurrencies as legal means of payment by different countries , to the effect of what has been observed in El Salvador, for example.
A positive development of the technology sector. Cryptocurrencies maintain a high correlation with the Nasdaq index.
That regulation, in general terms, be favorable to the entry of brokers and exchanges that provide massive and reliable services.
The entry of cryptocurrencies into private companies. Enable crypto-payments on massive platforms such as Twitter or Facebook.
Weakness of fiat currencies: the great asset of cryptocurrencies is precisely to replace the role that fiat currencies have traditionally occupied, in addition to their many other uses.
Factors that negatively influence
On the contrary, there are a series of factors that have a negative influence on the price of cryptocurrencies, among others:
Crisis and/or bankruptcies that occur within the network of providers or intermediaries of the crypto market.
Increases in interest rates, which traditionally cause capital to move towards more conservative options such as public debt or deposits
Legislative actions that promote a prohibition or persecution through legal means.
Fall in markets linked to technology.